Guatemala is a Central American nation bordered in the north by Belize and Mexico and in the south by Honduras and El Salvador. By sea Guatemala is adjacent to the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Honduras. Guatemala’s people and culture are a heterogeneous mix of Spanish and Mayan influences. Guatemala won its independence in the wave of national movements that swept Latin America in 1821. A 36-year civil war ended in 1996, resulting in the defeat of largely indigenous guerillas by US-backed government forces. The Guatemalan population is 12.3 million, growing at 2.27%. Guatemala’s per capita GDP is $4,700, and its main exports are coffee, petroleum, textiles, sugar, fruits, vegetables and cardamom. The population is 60% Mestizo, 9.1% K’iche, 8.4% Kaqchikel, 7.9% Mam, 6.3% Q’eqchi, 8.6% other Mayan, 0.2% non-Mayan indigenous and 0.1% other. Guatemalans follow Roman Catholicism, indigenous beliefs and, to an increasing extent, Protestantism. 

Social Indicators
Guatemalan population growth declined to 2.27% in 2006 from 2.57% in 2005. The median age rose from 18.47 in 2005 to 18.9 in 2006. The majority of the population is rural, but urbanization is increasing rapidly. Because of the falling growth rate and rising median age, Guatemala’s rating for demographic pressures in the FSI 2006 fell to 8.7 from 9.0 in 2005. Guatemala is a transit point for many Central American refugees heading to the United States, but the refugee population in Guatemala is in the hundreds, mostly urban and stable. Because the number of refugees has been relatively unchanged since 1999, the FSI 2006 refugees & displaced persons score is 6.0. Of Guatemala’s indigenous people, 76% live in poverty, while only 41% of whites and mestizos live in poverty. Land distribution is uneven, and many indigenous campesinos occupy disputed land as a form of protest. However, there were fewer government evictions of Mayans from large estates in 2005 compared to 2004, causing the FSI 2006 group grievance indicator to fall to 7.1 from 7.4 the year before. In 2002 remittances constituted 6.8% of Guatemala’s GDP. In 2005 remittances made up 9.5%, contributing to the high human flight ratings of 7.5 in the FSI 2005 and 6.7 in the FSI 2006. 

Economic Indicators
Real GDP growth increased from 2.7% in 2004 to 3.2% in 2005. Guatemala ratified the Central American Free Trade Agreement in March of 2005, raising hopes that the agreement would stimulate further growth by providing greater access to US markets for Guatemalan sugar and textile exports. For these reasons the FSI 2006 economy score is 7.1, improved from 7.7 the year before. In 2000, 56% of Guatemalans lived in poverty and 16% lived in extreme poverty. However, indigenous people assumed a greater role in local politics and there was a growing awareness of the unacceptability of racism across Guatemala. Per capita Gross National Income rose from $2190 in 2004 to $2400 in 2005, driven in part by an increase in coffee prices in 2005, causing the FSI 2006 uneven development score to improve to 8.0 from 9.0 in 2005.

Political/Military Indicators
President Oscar Berger was fairly elected in 2003. In 2005 Guatemala improved to a rank of 117th in Transparency International’s annual report on global corruption from 122nd the year before. Although corruption remained a serious problem, slight improvement and positive steps from the government allowed the FSI 2006 legitimacy of the state rating to fall from 9.5 in 2005 to 7.5 in 2006. The poor state of public services resulted in a rating of 7.1 for this indicator in the FSI 2006. Transportation infrastructure was prone to interruptions caused by heavy rainfall, and the poor often lacked access to healthcare. In 2004 the Office of Professional Responsibility (ORP) reported 51 cases of suspicious police involvement in killings, while in 2005 the ORP reported 24 such cases. In 2005, 26 journalists complained of intimidation to the Human Rights Ombudsman; the year before 40 complained to the human rights ombudsman. The decline in killings connected to police and intimidation complaints from journalists caused the FSI 2006 human rights indicator to fall to 7.1 from 8.7 in the FSI 2005. In 2005, because of widespread complaints about police impunity, the government began dismissal procedures against 1200 officers. Slightly improved police oversight led the FSI 2006 to rate Guatemala’s security apparatus at 7.5, down from 8.1 in 2005. In 2004, a Guatemalan court considered charging a former military regime leader, 2003 presidential candidate and powerful contemporary political figure, Rios Montt, for crimes committed during the civil war. There was also some uncertainty in 2004 after the outgoing and highly corrupt President Portillo was stripped of immunity by the Berger administration. The lower level of domestic turmoil in 2005 led the FSI 2006 factionalized elites rating to improve to 6.0 from 9.1 the year before. In 2005 hurricane Stan wrought massive destruction in Guatemala and in neighboring countries. In Guatemala alone, the confirmed death toll was 1500 with 3000 missing. This natural disaster caused the FSI 2006 external influence rating to rise to 5.5, up from 4.0 in 2005.

Core Five State Institutions
 

Leadership	Military	Police	Judiciary	Civil Service
Moderate	Moderate	Weak	Weak	Weak

Oscar Berger represents a clear improvement upon the previous regime of Alfonso Portillo, considered one of the most corrupt Latin American leaders in the recent past. Berger is perceived as a cautious reformer.

Berger reduced the size of Guatemalan military from 27,000 to 15,5000; he also substantially reduced the military budget. This places Guatemala’s military establishment in line with the rest of Central America.

The Guatemalan police are responsible for most unlawful killings in the country, commit kidnappings in collusion with organized crime, torture suspects and are highly corrupt.

While nominally independent, the judiciary is highly susceptible to corruption and police intimidation.