|
Overview
The Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste is located in southeastern Asia, northwest of Australia in the Lesser Sunda Islands at the eastern end of the Indonesian archipelago. Timor-Leste includes the eastern half of the island of Timor, the Oecussi (Ambeno) region on the northwest portion of the island of Timor, and the islands of Pulau Atauro and Pulau Jaco. Shortly after obtaining its independence from Portugal in 1975, the country was invaded by Indonesia. On 30 August 1999, the overwhelming majority voted for independence from Indonesia in a UN-supervised popular referendum. Before UN peacekeeping troops arrived in late September 1999, anti-independence militia backed by Indonesia had killed about 1,400 Timorese and caused about 300,000 to flee into West Timor as refugees during a large-scale scorched-earth campaign of retribution for the independence vote. On 20 September 1999, the International Force for East Timor (INTERFET), led by Australia, arrived and put an end to the violence. On 20 May 2002, Timor-Leste gained international recognition as an independent state. Timor-Leste currently has a population of about one million and a GDP per capita of $800. The population is 98% Roman Catholic, 1% Muslim and 1% Protestant. The ethnic groups in Timor-Leste consist of Austronesian (Malayo-Polynesian), Papuan, and a small Chinese minority.
Social Indicators
Demographic pressures was rated 8.1 in the FSI 2007 because of a moderate youth bulge, with 37% of the population under the age of 15, and a population growth rate of 2%. The capital, Dili, has expanded rapidly since independence, increasing pressures on already-lacking public services. Unemployment is also extremely high, estimated at over 50%, leading to increasing frustrations among the large youth population. Group grievance received a score of 7.1 due to historic grievances against Indonesians as well the growing divide between government loyalists and those who oppose the government. In March 2006, after the government dismissed approximately 600 soldiers for rioting over their poor conditions, violence broke out and nearly brought the country into civil war. The indicator for refugees and displaced persons received a rating of 8.5 due to the approximately 150,000 internally displaced persons resulting from the 2006 violence. Human flight received a score of 5.3 because some people emigrated from the country due to the lack of economic opportunities.
Economic Indicators
The indicator for uneven development received a score of 6.5 in the FSI 2007 because of the country’s high level of poverty, with 42% of the population living below the poverty line. Most of the country was poor, and inequality was not strongly divided along group lines. The economy received a high rating of 8.5. The country had a GDP per capita of only $800. There is some hope that the extraction of oil and gas found off the coast of Timor-Leste could help the country’s stagnant economy, but many fear that it will increase corruption and inequality without improving the daily lives of the majority of the population. The development of the oil and gas resources has done little to increase employment because the industry is not labor intensive and there are no production facilities in Timor-Leste, forcing the gas to be piped to Australia. Non-oil GDP growth was estimated to be negative in 2006. Unemployment has exacerbated the country’s unstable condition by adding to frustrations caused by unfulfilled expectations.
Political/Military Indicators
Timor-Leste received high ratings for all of the political/military indicators. Legitimacy of the state scored the highest, at 9.5, in part because of the resignation of Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri in June 2006. His decision to fire 600 soldiers, triggering the worst violence the country has seen since independence, made him deeply unpopular, and both President Gusmao and thousands of street protestors called for his resignation. Transparency International also scored Timor-Leste as highly corrupt. Public services scored a 7.9. The country’s infrastructure, including water supply systems, schools and almost the entire power grid, was largely destroyed in the fighting that broke out in 1999 and has yet to fully recover. The score of 6.9 for human rights was due to numerous reports of excessive use of force and abuse of authority by police officers. Prolonged pretrial detention and a lack of judicial rights were also problems. The indicator for the security apparatus received a rating of 9.0 in the FSI 2007 because of the riots within the military that eventually led to more widespread public violence. Timor-Leste’s high score of 8.8 for factionalized elites is a result of increasing tensions within the political elite. Fretilin, the ruling party, has been losing support over its inability to reduce poverty and unemployment. Jose Ramos-Horta, who is not a member of the ruling party, became prime minister after the resignation of Mari Alkatiri in June 2006. The unrest that began in March 2006 led to the redeployment of police and peacekeepers from Australia, New Zealand, and Portugal in Timor-Leste in May. In August, the UN set up a new non-military peacekeeping mission for Timor-Leste, UNMIT. The last peacekeepers of the previous mission had left the country in June 2005. The presence of foreign troops as well as Timor-Leste’s dependence on foreign aid resulted in a score of 8.8 for external influence.
Core Five State Institutions
| Leadership | Military | Police | Judiciary | Civil Service |  |  | | | | | Weak | Poor | Poor | Poor | Poor |
The president is elected by popular vote for a five-year term. The office of the president is mostly a ceremonial role, although the president is able to veto legislation, dissolve parliament, and call national elections. The leadership is weak, and the government has been losing popularity over its inability to reduce poverty and unemployment. Many soldiers in the armed forces had belonged to the rebel groups that fought for independence. In mid-2006, the military rioted over poor working conditions, leading to the sacking of 600 soldiers. The violence that followed caused the international community to intervene to prevent the escalating violence from leading to a civil war. The police are not considered dependable when it comes to protecting the public. There have been allegations that during the violent outburst in mid-2006 the police were nowhere to be found. The UN has placed UN police officers in Timor-Leste in order to maintain peace. The judiciary system in Timor-Leste is still very young and lacks established procedures and experienced judicial personnel. Major criminal investigations are internationally supervised. The civil service is largely ineffective and lacks proper management, skills and resources.
Prognosis
Timor-Leste is one of the youngest countries in the world and also one of the poorest. These factors, combined with its history of violence and unrest, have exacerbated the crisis of legitimacy in the government. The election of Jose Ramos-Horta as president in May 2007 has given some people new hope that the new government will be able to turn the country around, pulling it out of poverty and instability. However, more instability could follow if expectations once again go unmet. It is particularly important to revive the country’s ailing economy, and the proceeds from oil and gas reserves under the Timor Sea could help accomplish this goal. If the population feels that elites are pocketing or squandering oil revenue, further unrest could result.
Copyright (C) 2007 The Fund for Peace
|
