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Overview
Somalia occupies the tip of the Horn of Africa with coastlines along the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden and land borders with Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti. It has an estimated population of 8.7 million and a GDP per capita of $600. Somalia has been in a state of near anarchy since 1991, when clan factions overthrew President Mohammad Barre. The clans then turned on each other and state order collapsed into violent conflict. The United Nations began intensive relief operations in April 1992 but pulled out in 1995 following the death of 18 United States soldiers in a helicopter crash in October 1993 and the subsequent withdrawal of US military support. Somali warlords and civilian leaders reached a tentative agreement on forming a new transitional government in 2004, but the group formed has no money or state institutions and was unable to set up operations in the capital, Mogadishu. Somalia’s population is 85% Somali and 15% Bantu and other non-Somali ethnic groups, including 30,000 Arabs. The population is almost entirely Sunni Muslim.

Social Indicators
None of Somalia’s indicators improved in the FSI 2008 and many of them worsened due to the outbreaks of violence that took place in 2007. This deterioration propelled the country to the top of the FSI 2008. The score for demographic pressures increased from 9.2 to 9.8 in the FSI 2008.  Contributing to this high score is the high population growth rate of 2.824%, a very large youth bulge, with 45% of the population under the age of 15, and a resurgence of piracy which threatens the food supply.  The large number of Somalis fleeing the new surge of violence caused the refugees and displaced persons score to increase from 9.0 to 9.8 in the FSI 2008.  In April 2007, 320,000 Somalis fled from Mogadishu.  During just two weeks of November, 200,000 more fled the capital, bringing the number of Somali refugees to one million.  Group grievance rose from 8.5 in the FSI 2007 to 9.5 in the FSI 2008. This huge increase can be traced to the intensified clan fighting and the worst violence in fifteen years. This violence is pervasive and growing throughout major portions of the country. Human flight rose from 8.0 in the FSI 2007 to 8.3 in the FSI 2008 because of the Transitional Government’s continued inability to follow through on promised actions and plans for reform, which resulted in the further scattering of people and resources.

Economic Indicators
Data on Somalia’s economy is difficult to obtain due to the ongoing violence and chaos; therefore, estimates of GNP and poverty levels are unreliable. The score for uneven development remained at 7.5 as the country has no coherent development strategy and poverty is widespread.  In addition, Somalia suffers from a high infant mortality rate of 111 deaths per 1,000 births, and a quarter of all children die before reaching the age of five. Despite the ongoing violence, Somalia managed to maintain a rudimentary economy based mainly on livestock, with exports of livestock, bananas, hides and fish. Telecommunications companies and money exchange services have grown in importance, partly because of Somalia’s large Diaspora community. A new surge of piracy off the coast of Somalia has threatened shipments, however, and the economy score increased from 9.2 to 9.4 in the FSI 2008. The recent cycle of drought, flood, drought, has also led to the worst cereals harvest in 13 years.

Political/Military Indicators
With the Transitional Federal Government’s failure to end the anarchy in Somalia and threat from the Union of Islamic Courts, the legitimacy of the state score remained at 10.0 in the FSI 2008. The increasing amount of fighting since 2007, especially in Mogadishu, between the Islamist insurgency and the transitional government and its backers, the Ethiopian troops, has forced thousands of civilians into camps. In April, a clash between the Ethiopian troops and the Islamist fighters, during which the Ethiopian troops used heavy artillery and tank shells in residential streets, killed 81 and wounded 119, most of whom were civilians. The score for public services, which remain largely non-existent, stayed at 10.0 in the FSI 2008.  Malnutrition rates are extremely high, reaching up to 19% in places like Afgooye where refugee camps have sprung up.  However, because of the violence and chaos, Somalia is suffering from a void in humanitarian aid workers and funds, with only an estimated $200 million in aid. Ships carrying food have been attacked by pirates off the coast of Somalia, including two UN shipments, and a Jordanian ship carrying sugar.  Increasingly, aid workers have also become targets. In May, a UN aid worker delivering food to central Somalia was shot after his truck was held up at an illegal road block. 

The score for human rights rose to 9.9 in the FSI 2008. Clashes in the capital killed hundreds of civilians and hundreds of thousands more were displaced. In 2007, Human Rights Watch accused Ethiopian, Somali and insurgent forces of war crimes, and a UN special envoy described the humanitarian situation in Somalia as the worst in Africa.   The security apparatus received a rating of 10.0 in the FSI 2007 and the FSI 2008 due to the significant and continuing presence of armed clan militias and reports of infiltration into the country of extremist organizations, such as al Qaeda, and the spread of fundamentalist Islamic militias. The rating for factionalized elites remained at 10.0 in the FSI 2008 as political groups became even more divided along clan lines. External influence also remained at 10.0 in the FSI 2008, due to the United Nation’s ongoing work to create a peace deal, the presence of African Union Peacekeepers, and the recent UN Security Council vote to send warships into Somalia’s territorial waters to fight the pirates.

Core Five State Institutions
 

Leadership	Military	Police	Judiciary	Civil Service
Poor	Poor	Poor	Poor	Poor

Leaders of the Transitional Federal Government have no effective authority over the country. The self-proclaimed state of Somaliland and the region of Puntland hold power over their own constituencies, as do clan leaders and warlords over their groups.  During the second half of 2006, the TFG lost control of most of the country to Islamist militia, and only regained it because of outside help. 

While both Somaliland and Puntland maintain their own independent armed forces, there is no national level of military. The TFG seeks aid from both the United Nations and African Union Peacekeepers. The country is rife with rival militias.

As with the military, there is no central police force. Clan leaders and other local leaders maintain their own security forces.

Local traditional courts and Islamic courts have replaced the Somali judiciary. As with the other state institutions, no central governmental courts exist.

There is no centralized bureaucracy to deliver public services.

Prognosis
The prognosis for Somalia is bleak. Fighting continues throughout the country and the two separatist regions continue to claim their autonomy. During the past year, the crisis has significantly worsened, as the number of refugees grows with the increasing violence. Transparency International ranked Somalia at the top of the list of world’s most corrupt countries in the 2007 index.  Additionally, piracy has made the waters off the Somalia coast the most dangerous in the world.  There are no signs that the Transitional Government will be able to assert itself on its own. Systemic changes are necessary before any significant economic or political development can occur.

Copyright (C) 2008 The Fund for Peace