|
The Surge: What Comes Next?
 Iraq could descend into widespread sectarian fighting, ending in either a military victory by one side, or a slide toward partition, if it cannot unite rival groups and broker a sustainable political solution, according to a new report by the Washington, D.C.-based Fund for Peace. Further, the presence of U.S. combat troops in Iraq will not prevent such scenarios; Iraq’s fate depends less on the timetable of U.S. military withdrawal than on Iraqi leaders pursuing national reconciliation. The report, “The Surge: What Comes Next?,” is the eighth report in the Iraq as a Failed State series by the non-partisan research and education organization. “While the debate over Iraq focuses on U.S. troop withdrawal, the truth is that the future of the country rests in the hands of the Iraqis, not the Americans,” stated Dr. Pauline H. Baker, author of the report. “U.S. troops can continue to provide a certain degree of physical security in the short-term, but as long as they remain, there will be little impetus for Iraqis to pursue long-term sustainable security. Ultimately, the U.S. cannot do for the Iraqis what they must now do for themselves.” The report asserts that the U.S. troop surge contributed to the decline in violence over the past year, but other critical factors, including Moqtada al-Sadr’s cease-fire and the switch in allegiance by the Sunnis from the insurgents to the coalition forces, also improved security conditions. However, successful military tactics have not been translated into a successful political strategy. Iraq’s sectarian rivalries are still strong, the Sunni “Sons of Iraq” fighters have not been fully integrated into the government’s security forces, violence continues to terrorize the population, and some five million refugees and displaced persons have yet to return to their homes. Many flashpoints threaten to reignite into open civil war, including provincial elections in January, the unresolved status of Kirkuk, the potential of independent militias to take up arms against the government, and the inability of the government to protect minorities. Despite the promise of the upcoming provincial elections, the possibility remains that they could exacerbate conflict because various armed groups still exist and the rule of law is yet to be established. While U.S. troops can help provide security for the elections, they cannot achieve political reconciliation among rival groups. Indeed, “the presence of a foreign occupying force irritates all parties, provides a foil for potential spoilers, and offers an excuse for Iraqis to avoid necessary political compromise,” the report states. The groundwork is already underway for U.S. troop reduction; thirteen of Iraq’s eighteen provinces are now controlled by Iraqi forces and a new Status of Forces Agreement calls for withdrawal of U.S. combat forces by 2011. However, “Political compromise must occur before then for peace to take root,” said Baker. To download the abridged version (19 pages) of Report 8, click here. To download the full version (309 pages) of Report 8, click here.
Click here for "Are We There Yet?" by Pauline H. Baker, Journal of International Peace Operations, Vol. 4, No. 5, March-April 2009.
Previous Fund for Peace Iraq Conflict Reports - Abridged versions
Full versions of past reports can be found in our Reports Library.
Other Fund for Peace Iraq Conflict Downloads
|
